Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 25th, 2023

Rabinder Dhillon • January 25, 2023

Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 25 basis points, continues quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

January 25, 2023

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 4½%, with the Bank Rate at 4¾% and the deposit rate at 4½%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Global inflation remains high and broad-based. Inflation is coming down in many countries, largely reflecting lower energy prices as well as improvements in global supply chains. In the United States and Europe, economies are slowing but proving more resilient than was expected at the time of the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). China’s abrupt lifting of COVID-19 restrictions has prompted an upward revision to the growth forecast for China and poses an upside risk to commodity prices. Russia’s war on Ukraine remains a significant source of uncertainty. Financial conditions remain restrictive but have eased since October, and the Canadian dollar has been relatively stable against the US dollar.

The Bank estimates the global economy grew by about 3½% in 2022, and will slow to about 2% in 2023 and 2½% in 2024. This projection is slightly higher than October’s.

In Canada, recent economic growth has been stronger than expected and the economy remains in excess demand. Labour markets are still tight: the unemployment rate is near historic lows and businesses are reporting ongoing difficulty finding workers. However, there is growing evidence that restrictive monetary policy is slowing activity, especially household spending. Consumption growth has moderated from the first half of 2022 and housing market activity has declined substantially. As the effects of interest rate increases continue to work through the economy, spending on consumer services and business investment are expected to slow. Meanwhile, weaker foreign demand will likely weigh on exports. This overall slowdown in activity will allow supply to catch up with demand.

The Bank estimates Canada’s economy grew by 3.6% in 2022, slightly stronger than was projected in October. Growth is expected to stall through the middle of 2023, picking up later in the year. The Bank expects GDP growth of about 1% in 2023 and about 2% in 2024, little changed from the October outlook.

Inflation has declined from 8.1% in June to 6.3% in December, reflecting lower gasoline prices and, more recently, moderating prices for durable goods. Despite this progress, Canadians are still feeling the hardship of high inflation in their essential household expenses, with persistent price increases for food and shelter. Short-term inflation expectations remain elevated. Year-over-year measures of core inflation are still around 5%, but 3-month measures of core inflation have come down, suggesting that core inflation has peaked.

Inflation is projected to come down significantly this year. Lower energy prices, improvements in global supply conditions, and the effects of higher interest rates on demand are expected to bring CPI inflation down to around 3% in the middle of this year and back to the 2% target in 2024.

With persistent excess demand putting continued upward pressure on many prices, Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate by a further 25 basis points. The Bank’s ongoing program of quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of the policy rate. If economic developments evolve broadly in line with the MPR outlook, Governing Council expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases. Governing Council is prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target, and remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 8, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on April 12, 2023.

Read the January 25th, 2023 Monetary Policy Report.

< Older Post Newer Post >

RABINDER
MORTGAGE BROKER

LET'S CONNECT

RRSP As A Downpayment

By Rabinder Dhillon • September 10, 2025

Did you know there’s a program that allows you to use your RRSP to help come up with your downpayment to buy a home? It’s called the Home Buyer’s Plan (or HBP for short), and it’s made possible by the government of Canada. While the program is pretty straightforward, there are a few things you need to know. Your first home (with some exceptions) To qualify, you need to be buying your first home. However, when you look into the fine print, you find that technically, you must not have owned a home in the last four years or have lived in a house that your spouse owned in the previous four years. Another exception is for those with a disability or those helping someone with a disability. In this case, you can withdraw from an RRSP for a home purchase at any time. You have to pay back the RRSP You have 15 years to pay back the RRSP, and you start the second year after the withdrawal. While you won’t pay any tax on this particular withdrawal, it does come with some conditions. You’ll have to pay back the total amount you withdrew over 15 years. The CRA will send you an HBP Statement of Account every year to advise how much you owe the RRSP that year. Your repayments will not count as contributions as you’ve already received the tax break from those funds. Access to funds The funds you withdraw from the RRSP must have been there for at least 90 days. You can still technically withdraw the money from your RRSP and use it for your down-payment, but it won’t be tax-deductible and won’t be part of the HBP. You can access up to $35,000 individually or $70,00 per couple through the HBP. Please connect anytime if you’d like to know more about the HBP and how it could work for you as you plan your downpayment. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Mortgage Approval 101: GDS & TDS Explained

By Rabinder Dhillon • September 3, 2025

Can You Afford That Mortgage? Let’s Talk About Debt Service Ratios One of the biggest factors lenders look at when deciding whether you qualify for a mortgage is something called your debt service ratios. It’s a financial check-up to make sure you can handle the payments—not just for your new home, but for everything else you owe as well. If you’d rather skip the math and have someone walk through this with you, that’s what I’m here for. But if you like to understand how things work behind the scenes, keep reading. We’re going to break down what these ratios are, how to calculate them, and why they matter when it comes to getting approved. What Are Debt Service Ratios? Debt service ratios measure your ability to manage your financial obligations based on your income. There are two key ratios lenders care about: Gross Debt Service (GDS) This looks at the percentage of your income that would go toward housing expenses only. 2. Total Debt Service (TDS) This includes your housing costs plus all other debt payments—car loans, credit cards, student loans, support payments, etc. How to Calculate GDS and TDS Let’s break down the formulas. GDS Formula: (P + I + T + H + Condo Fees*) ÷ Gross Monthly Income Where: P = Principal I = Interest T = Property Taxes H = Heat Condo fees are usually calculated at 50% of the total amount TDS Formula: (GDS + Monthly Debt Payments) ÷ Gross Monthly Income These ratios tell lenders if your budget is already stretched too thin—or if you’ve got room to safely take on a mortgage. How High Is Too High? Most lenders follow maximum thresholds, especially for insured (high-ratio) mortgages. As of now, those limits are typically: GDS: Max 39% TDS: Max 44% Go above those numbers and your application could be declined, regardless of how confident you feel about your ability to manage the payments. Real-World Example Let’s say you’re earning $90,000 a year, or $7,500 a month. You find a home you love, and the monthly housing costs (mortgage payment, property tax, heat) total $1,700/month. GDS = $1,700 ÷ $7,500 = 22.7% You’re well under the 39% cap—so far, so good. Now factor in your other monthly obligations: Car loan: $300 Child support: $500 Credit card/line of credit payments: $700 Total other debt = $1,500/month Now add that to the $1,700 in housing costs: TDS = $3,200 ÷ $7,500 = 42.7% Uh oh. Even though your GDS looks great, your TDS is just over the 42% limit. That could put your mortgage approval at risk—even if you’re paying similar or higher rent now. What Can You Do? In cases like this, small adjustments can make a big difference: Consolidate or restructure your debts to lower monthly payments Reallocate part of your down payment to reduce high-interest debt Add a co-applicant to increase qualifying income Wait and build savings or credit strength before applying This is where working with an experienced mortgage professional pays off. We can look at your entire financial picture and help you make strategic moves to qualify confidently. Don’t Leave It to Chance Everyone’s situation is different, and debt service ratios aren’t something you want to guess at. The earlier you start the conversation, the more time you’ll have to improve your numbers and boost your chances of approval. If you're wondering how much home you can afford—or want help analyzing your own GDS and TDS—let’s connect. I’d be happy to walk through your numbers and help you build a solid mortgage strategy.